Nitrogen Fertilizer

Nitrogen fertilizer accounts for roughly 60 to 65 percent of all fertilizer used worldwide, which makes it the single most critical variable in industrial food production. Without nitrogen fertilizer, modern high-output agriculture does not work.

How It Is Made: Haber-Bosch

Nitrogen gas (N2), which makes up most of the atmosphere, is converted into ammonia (NH3) under very high pressure with the help of a metal catalyst. That takes large amounts of energy, which is why nitrogen fertilizer is produced mostly where cheap natural gas is available.

Consequence: major natural-gas producers are effectively also nitrogen-fertilizer producers. That gives regions such as Qatar and the broader Gulf outsized influence over a basic input into the global food system.

Critical Dependency: Strait of Hormuz

Roughly 35 percent of global nitrogen fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz. If that corridor is disrupted by war, blockade, or infrastructure damage, urea prices spike very quickly.

Iran war, 2026: when the conflict escalated, urea prices reportedly jumped from around $350 to more than $700 per ton within days. At the same time China, an important swing producer, halted fertilizer exports while also buying less U.S. corn. That creates a painful squeeze for farmers: input costs rise while crop prices stay weak.

Why Crises Linger

One of Qatar’s major urea production facilities was damaged. Repair timelines run in years, and building new capacity takes even longer. Existing plants around the world already operate close to full utilization, so there is very little idle reserve capacity.

Global food buffers are thin. The point of this page is not only that fertilizer prices move, but that fertilizer shocks propagate into food availability, farmer economics, and geopolitical stability much longer than headline cycles suggest.

What Is Missing: Strategic Resilience

As with medicine or protective equipment, the problem is not just price but preparedness. There is no meaningful strategic fertilizer reserve. David Friedberg and Chamath Palihapitiya argue for building local production capacity and reserves, analogous to strategic oil storage.

Related: helium is a byproduct of natural-gas extraction and therefore exposed to some of the same supply-chain risks, with downstream effects on MRI systems and semiconductor production.