SpaceX

Space company founded by Elon Musk in 2002 with the goal of making humanity a multi-planetary species. What began as a seemingly crazy side project is now the most valuable private company in the world.

IPO (2026)

In April 2026, SpaceX confidentially filed for an IPO, reportedly targeting June 2026 at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. That would make SpaceX the eighth-largest company in the world, just behind TSMC and Saudi Aramco. Planned fundraising: $75 billion, by far the largest IPO ever attempted.

Why now: a public market price would create a validated valuation anchor for Musk’s broader conglomerate. It would end the endless argument over how to compare his time and capital allocation across Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, because market caps would make those comparisons explicit.

Tesla-SpaceX merger: Chamath Palihapitiya gives this scenario roughly 99.99% probability. The strategic logic is that robots (Tesla), launch transport (SpaceX), AI (xAI), and chips plus factories across both companies overlap heavily. Combined, they would be worth around $3.1 trillion, enough for fourth place globally.

Why SpaceX Is the Railroad of Space

David Friedberg’s analogy is the useful one: just as railroads opened the American West, SpaceX is opening space. The key lever is Starlink, which generates 50 to 80% of revenue, about $15 to 16 billion total revenue in 2025 and roughly $8 billion profit, while also building a backup internet layer in orbit.

Launch costs have fallen so far that startups are now concretely planning asteroid mining, modular space stations such as Vast Space, and industrial production on the moon. Not as science fiction, but as real business plans with Falcon 9 launch slots.

The Moon as the Next Industrial Frontier

For the fuller version, see David Friedberg.

The short version: shipping goods from the moon to Earth could be cheaper than terrestrial transport because one-sixth gravity plus no atmosphere means no traditional rocket fuel requirement. An electromagnetic mass driver powered by 500 square meters of solar could send one ton every 15 minutes. The missing ingredient is autonomous robotics.